Social Media Explorer Article: 2014 Marketing Measurement Predictions

January 2, 2014

Ad Measurement Trends: Reach, Resonance, Reaction across Platforms

I’m usually sceptical of many of the over-blown predictions coming from the social media space, but this article by Social Media Explorer’s Nichole Kelly gets it just right when it comes to 2014 marketing measurement trends.

  • Creation of company wide measurement standards
  • Cross-channel measurement will be the new standard
  • Multi-touch attribution will improve beyond first touch/last touch models
  • Revenue creation will be the new story

In essence, what she is saying is that the 3R’s of reaching your intended audience, maximizing ad resonance and attitudinal change, and driving sales–across all platforms–are the inexorable measurement trends in 2014.

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AdExchanger Article: Attribution Modeling Across the Marketing Funnel

December 31, 2013

Attribution Modeling Needs to Model Upper and Lower Funnel Metrics

An interesting perspective from AdExchanger on how attribution modeling needs to evolve from measuring just lower funnel metrics like clicks and sales to upper funnel brand metrics.

 

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Article from The Drum: 2014 Advertising Predictions

December 30, 2013

Starting today, I’ll begin sharing my Tweets and LinkedIn posts here in addition to original content. I’ll include articles and videos of interest about advertising, media, technology, neuroscience, analytics, data and the future of marketing.

I’m constantly reading and, while I will continue to write original blog posts once every month or two, I’ll also share the best of what I’m reading.

The common denominator for all of these articles is that they are in one way or another about the future of marketing communications and evidence based advertising and media communications.

Here’s the first. I hope you enjoy some of them as much as I do.

2014 Advertising predictions:  More data, analytics, programmatic, engagement, crossplatform

 


Machine Reading Advertising Implications

December 11, 2013

Machine reading revolution has advertising and media implications #machinelearning #advertising http://ow.ly/rFxhA


5 Advertising Game Changers

November 21, 2013

I speak frequently at advertising industry events, and probably the single most frequent question I get is this:

“What are the biggest game changers in advertising that you believe will permanently change the way that CMO’s and their Marketing organization’s operate in the future?”

From conversations with many CMO’s, Media Heads, Agency Research Heads, etc., I see 5 big trends that will forever change advertising as we’ve known it for the past 50 years.

5 Advertising Game Changers

1.  Content:  It’s More Than Just A Pipeline – Advertisers used to think of media plans as analogous to a “pipeline.” Advertisers produced ads, and publishers provided content, which acted as a “pipe” to pump the message to end consumers. This is an overly simplistic view of media plans; a better analogy would be content as a “trampoline,” where content provides “bounce” to advertising effectiveness.

It does so in two ways: attentiveness and context. When viewers pay more attention to content, they also tend to pay more attention to the ads in that content. So, content or programs which have higher attentiveness also drive high ad performance.

Similarly, program context also impacts ad performance. Benefit consistency (sports clothes in sports programs; weight loss foods in weight loss programs, etc.) help ads outperform the same ads in content with less relevant context.

Attentiveness and context are not new concepts. But measurement of them is, and advertisers are increasingly taking advantage of this knowledge.

2.  Media Planning: More than Audiences – Clients are asking all of the media agencies for more from their clients—more cost savings, more foresight, more analytics, but more than anything—more brand and sales impact from their media plans.

This means that traditional media planning is morphing from being mostly about audience and costs—e.g. reach, frequency, GRP’s and cost per 1000, to brand or sales impact. This has two implications.

First, agencies are beginning to incorporate impact based metrics into their media plans. Instead of GRP’s, there will be “effective GRP’s,” which incorporate brand or sales impact.

Second, agencies and advertisers will begin to pre-test media plans. Instead of simply looking at audience and cost metrics, agencies and advertisers will begin using simulations to look at projected brand and sales impact as well.

3.  Real Time: The Time is Now – Everything is moving digital, and one of the benefits of digital is measuring your advertising with granularity and speed. Two examples:

Currently, over 20% of display ads are auctioned thru Real Time Bidding DSP/SSP platforms. Buying audiences in real time is going to get even bigger and more granular, as DSP/SSP platforms become more sophisticated and are increasingly fueled more granular data sets.

And, audiences won’t just be bought in real time, they’ll also be bought for sales impact. Digital attribution modeling now employs daily regression modeling at the individual person level to measure sales impact by touchpoint, including by web site and placement. The move to real time is real, inexorable and now.

4.  Single Source:  The Holy Grail Arrives at Last – Connecting—literally—the ads people are exposed to with the goods and services they buy—has always been deemed the holy grail. This “single source” data at the individual or household level is finally here—at scale, providing unparalleled insights into how advertising works.

Enabled by privacy protected loyalty and credit card buying data plus viewing panels and set top box viewing data, it will help agencies and advertisers understand which audiences most respond volumetrically to the advertising, which ads drive the most volume, which programs or web sites deliver the most lift, what role exposure frequency plays in driving sales, etc.

While still early in the adoption phase, single source is poised to finally provide extraordinary insight into how to improve advertising effectiveness.

5.  Audiences:  More than Demo’s – Digital audience buying is already focused on all kinds of characteristics that go well beyond basic demo’s. For example, retargeting uses viewer browser shopping behavior to target future ads (I shopped for a bike on Web site X, so I see bike ads outside of Amazon in the days and weeks following).

The data sets used to buy audiences are getting richer and more granular. You can already buy digital audiences based on TV viewing behavior (e.g. buy digital audiences unlikely to have seen your TV advertising), offline buyer behavior (e.g. heavy category consumer who have not bought your brand), geography, etc.

The Game Changers Converge

If you’re feeling that these five game changers seem to overlap to some degree, you’d be right. While they are all different concepts, they are mutually reinforcing and, when taken together, are amplifying and accelerating changes to the advertising eco-system.

For example, when advertisers launch a new campaign, within the first week they can:

  • Use single source to quantify how web site content impacts ad performance.
  • Measure this daily to get a read across all sites in their plan.
  • Use real time bidding to bid for the most volumetrically responsive sites.
  • Bid for audiences most likely to have not seen their TV ads to extend reach.
  • Leverage all of this learning in their next impact based media plan.

Where to start ? It sounds almost overwhelming. Well, you can always take Muhammed Ali’s sage advice: “it isn’t the mountains ahead to climb that wear you out, it’s the pebble in your shoe.” In other words, get started small and get started now !

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Neuroscience in Advertising: Making the :15 the New :30

August 5, 2013

The :15 second TV commercial has a lot in common with cubic zirconium—a cheaper and lower quality “look-alike” that is almost instantly recognizable by anyone as anything but the real thing.

Often treated as an afterthought by Marketers and Agencies alike, the :15 TV spot is usually just a cut down version of the :30, rarely copy tested, but assumed to be at least 50% as good as the :30 from which it’s derived.

But the truth is that most Marketers have no idea how good, or bad, their :15’s really are. It’s as if everyone just blindly assumes the best, without thinking about the worst. Fifteen second ads adhere to the same basic principles of success as :30’s, but just get much less attention.

An Improvement — Real Time :15 vs. :30 Optimization

Things have improved somewhat over the past few years. With the advent of real time TV ad effectiveness measurement, Marketers can now monitor the performance of their :30’s and :15’s on a weekly or bi-weekly basis, so they can understand relative differences in performance.

This enables you to see when your 15’s perform well enough to warrant moving out of your :30’s and into 100% focus on your :15’s. But all of this is after the fact. What’s really needed is better :15 design beforehand. But how?

Neuroscience & Copy Testing

Neuroscience has had any number of fits and starts over the past few years when applied to Marketing. But one area where there has been substantial and undeniable progress is in the area of copy testing. Possibly the most advanced technique uses EEG measures of brain activity to understand how viewers are responding to advertising. This approach uses EEG to identify and capture responses to brain stimuli in fractions of a second.

In particular, EEG based copy testing can measure three things extremely well:

  1. Attention – When and how much viewer attention is paid to an ad. This is key to knowing if someone even notices or pays attention to your ad in the first place.
  2. Memory – Whether a viewers memory is activated in response to viewing an ad. Without memory, it’s unlikely that an ad will influence much future behavior.
  3. Emotion – To what degree a viewer is drawn to or pulls away from the ad stimulus. Attention and memory are important, but so is positive emotional attraction.

Taken together, these three measures are key to effective ads. They relate directly to whether someone pays attention to the ad, whether the ad is stored in long term memory, and whether the ad elicits a positive emotional response.

Importantly, EEG based copy testing measures viewer’s brain waves in milliseconds throughout the commercial. Typically, a viewer’s brain waves looks like a series of peaks and valleys as the viewer responds to different parts of the commercial. These peaks and valleys correspond to the parts of the commercial that are most and least effective as measured by attention, memory and emotion.

The Optimal :15 TV Spot

Back to the :30 vs. :15 conundrum: how do you design a better :15 TV spot? Well, it’s not as difficult as rocket science, but it’s essentially an exercise in brain wave assessment. Simply put, you cut out the ads “valleys” and keep the “peaks.”

Neuroscience based copy testing has advanced to the point where it can algorithmically eliminate the weakest portions of the :30 TV commercial while keeping the strongest ones for the new :15. This re-cut commercial is then edited by the Agency creatives for story flow, continuity, and visual seamlessness into a final spot.

The Neuroscience Based :15 TV Commercial – How Good ?

At this point, you might be asking: “but how good, really, are these cut down neuroscience based ads? It all sounds like a big black box.”

Based on Nielsen NeuroFocus (disclosure: I work at Nielsen) testing of both original :30 TV spots and the EEG-optimized :15’s, here is what we see:

  • ~90% of neuroscience optimized :15 ads test just as well as their :30 counterparts
  • A significant number of optimized :15 ads actually test better than their :30 counterparts

Upside for Marketers

So, the next time you see your Ad Agency, tell them that you have a “present” for them—neuroscience-based :15’s. They’re definitely a lot more valuable than regular “cubic zirconium” :15’s and, more importantly, viewers will respond as if they’re :30 “diamonds in the rough.”

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Shifting Digital Accountability to Brand Marketers

June 3, 2013

Growing up, when I was pestering my parents about something that I just really, really had to have (like a real, live pet monkey), they would often say:

“Be careful what you ask for; you might just get it.”

Brand Marketers have been asking for lots more from digital—but have largely been unmoved by the response, and their anemic spending shows it.

Shifting Digital Accountability to Brand Marketers

Shifting Digital Accountability to Brand Marketers

They ARE shifting more money into digital, particularly as on-line video, mobile and social explode.  But their digital spending has lagged their direct marketing counterparts, as they continue to look for more evidence of the efficacy of digital advertising.

The accountability debate is shifting quickly though, from digital publishers and measurement companies to the Brand Marketers themselves.

What do Brand Marketers Need?

1.  Audience Delivery – Much has been written recently about the issues and opportunities associated with digital audience delivery. Any reader of the advertising and media press knows that large numbers of digital ads are not delivered to their intended audience, and many aren’t even viewable—a real embarrassment to many who prided digital on its precise targeting.

But the fact that we are even talking (or writing about) this topic says a lot about how to solve the problem. We can now measure how well, or how poorly, individual sites perform in delivering digital advertising to their intended audience—on a daily basis. And, with metrics that are common across platforms—e.g. reach, frequency, GRP’s against key demographic targets, Brand Marketers can now much better understand the relative performance of different media.

2.  Brand Impact – Brand Marketers care not just about sales, but about their brand or, more specifically, brand equity. They want to know that digital advertising has equal or more brand building impact than the alternative mediums.

Digital brand building metrics have now equaled and, in some cases, surpassed metrics from other mediums. Brands can not only measure increases in awareness, brand recall and other traditional ad effectiveness metrics, but can now also link ad exposure directly to traditional brand equity metrics. Given these tools, Brand Marketers should be confident that they can really understand the impact of digital advertising on their brand KPI’s.

3.  Sales Impact – Not surprisingly, while Brand Marketers want to see that digital advertising builds their brand, they also want to know that their brand building efforts result in sales. There are multiple approaches available for measuring the sales impact of digital advertising.

Traditional Market Mix Modeling (MMM) is one, and it’s particularly effective at giving brand builders a relative understanding of how digital advertising compares to other traditional mediums such as TV and Print. That is, for every $1 invested in digital, what on or off-line sales return do I get and how does that compare to other media?

A newer approach for Brand Marketers is Attribution Modeling, which models individuals’ exposure to different digital touch-points against sales. Ironically, attribution modeling was first advocated by direct marketers who were trying to understand the contribution of different digital exposures to search based click-thru.

The advantage of attribution modeling is that it can typically measure more granular digital activities than MMM and the impact of cross-platform exposure on sales—e.g. it can “attribute” impact to different touch-points and combinations thereof.

In either case, there really is no excuse now for not understanding the sales impact of your digital advertising—ROI measurement in digital is very good–even for brand based advertising.

4.  Real Time Optimization – One of Marketers biggest frustrations across all media has been their inability to quickly understand advertising and media performance, and then make improvements in-flight.

Digital, in theory, should be great at this, and in fact has made great strides with real-time bidding (RTB). RTB uses real time performance metrics (click thru, etc.) by site, placement, etc. to understand how to bid and re-allocate spend to the best performing placements just as its name implies—in real time. But again, these gains have mostly been in the direct response world, leaving brand marketers to wonder about what could have been.

Well, direct marketing to the rescue. Real time optimization is now the domain of the Brand Marketer. Brands can now select a few key brand metrics, measure impact continuously across creative units, sites, exposure frequency, and audience, and optimize in real time to improve results.

Optimization can be done manually by the Agency, or via demand side platforms. Some progressive agencies have even take this further by collaborating with publishers on real time optimization to deliver much stronger brand results.

Shifting Accountability to Brand Marketers

Brand Marketers used to have a real issue with digital—accountability. “What does it do for my brand ? How does it impact my sales?” Fair questions that, frankly, weren’t being answered very well until recently. Hence, the slower adoption of digital by the brand focused Marketing community.

The accountability debate has shifted—to Brand Marketers. There really is no reason, at least no measurement reason, that Brand Marketers shouldn’t be playing in digital—in a big way. Now Brand Marketers need to be accountable for measuring, understanding and improving the impact of their digital advertising.

And, let’s hope they fare better than I did with my monkey request. Because while my pet monkey was a lot of fun (and a blast at show and tell), I also spent an awful lot of time cleaning up his messes—at meal time and otherwise !

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