Innovate 1st Interview Part 3 – Social Media Myths and Truths

January 10, 2011

I was recently interviewed by Innovate 1st for an upcoming edition of Innovate eZine’s “Conversations on the Cutting Edge” series. Following are excerpts from the interview, which was conducted by Doug Berger, Managing Director, The INNOVATE Company.

To read the full interview series, start with my earlier blog post: “Challenges in Advertising & Media Effectiveness.” 

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Social Media Myths & Truths

Doug:        Let’s shift gears to social and digital media.  Why don’t you start with some basic facts and then move into some of the wide-spread fallacies.

Randall:     Globally, in 2007, there were about 210 million people using social media.  Today, it’s over 500 million people.  The time per person spent between 2007 and 2009 has gone up about 82 percent.

So more people are doing it, and they’re doing it a lot more.  Secondly, it is big everywhere.  When you look around the world at the percentage of people using social media, globally it’s 73 percent as of last year, from a low of 59 percent in Germany up to a high of 84 percent in Brazil, with the U.S. at the global average of 73 percent.

It started skewing a bit younger, but as the penetration of social media has grown, it’s become almost a truly representational population.

Social Media Myths & Truths

Doug:        What are the trends around social media in terms of brand building?

Randall:     We all know that a recommendation from a friend, or a family member, or an acquaintance is the most powerful form of marketing there is.  That is the underlying phenomena of social media.   Engaging people to ultimately have them speak positively on your behalf is the real opportunity of social media.

Let me just give you one example of this.  Nielsen (Disclosure: I work at Nielsen) has a partnership with Facebook, where they measure ad effectiveness on Facebook. They have looked at a basic ad for Virgin Atlantic and we can see the recall for the ad.  Facebook can serve up that same exact Virgin ad, except below its ad it says, “The following friends or people in your network are also fans of Virgin.”  These ads score much higher than just the regular ad without the social context.

Virgin Atlantic: Facebook Fan Page

One of the developments that advertisers need to be focused on are ways to leverage social context that validates having people seriously think about using or buying your brand.

A lot of our clients are moving to a media model that we like to call POEM – Paid, Owned, Earned Media.  Paid media is the traditional advertising.  Owned media is your own website, or you own your own content on a website.  Earned media is how consumers are talking about your brand.

This POEM framework is an interesting one to think about for reaching consumers.  Now advertisers can look at people who viewed an ad; the percentage who went online and searched for my brand; the percentage who went onto my Facebook page; the percentage who went to my corporate website.  You can measure all of that.  You can start to understand the interaction of paid and earned media in a way that hasn’t been possible before.

POEM Framework: Paid, Owned, Earned Media

Doug:        In the world of social media, there are myths that companies are acting on, but based on your statistics don’t have validity.  What are turning out to be some of the places where social media is not delivering marketing effectiveness?

Randall:     Social media is part of earned media messaging that’s carried out voluntarily by consumers on behalf of the brand. That voluntary messaging can be positive or negative.

The biggest myth is in viral marketing.  There is a belief that you can do a viral video and achieve much of what you would achieve, for example, with TV advertising at a fraction of the cost.

The reality is, first of all, that there are a rare few videos that ever go viral enough and get enough voluntary messaging by consumers to come anywhere close to the reach you can achieve on TV.  It really has to be earned through consumers giving you great ratings because your brand really worked; the product or service is a great one.

Old Spice & Viral Marketing

I remember a time when my wife and I went on vacation.  We came back to the Philadelphia Airport and her Lexus wouldn’t start.  I called customer service and I expected that they would send a tow truck. Instead, they walked me through a five-step process to get the car started and it all worked out.

That’s a fantastic example of where I could then go online and talk about my great experience with Lexus.  That is what advertisers need to be focused on … how do you drive voluntary positive messaging by consumers on behalf of your brand?

People have gotten hung up on going after something really cool and creative and different and having it go viral, as opposed to focusing on the real activities that build advocacy for your brand.

Doug:        What else have you found people to be really interested in?

Randall:     Let me come back to cross platform measurement.  You know that the cross platform exposure is driving much greater effectiveness among the people who see your ad in more places, and yet the media planning hasn’t caught up.

The media plans are still constructed in a way that drive more reach across each media instead of driving more overlap.  This area is going to get more attention.

Next:   Marketing in the B2B space

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The 2010 Marketing Landscape – Social Media & Business Predictions for Marketers

March 1, 2010

Marketing is in a state of change perhaps unmatched since the invention of TV advertising and brand management. As marketers consider how to better utilize the social web to build their brand in this rapidly changing environment, one good read is “17 Visionaries Predict Social Business Impact on the Enterprise.” At the start of 2010, Christopher Rollyson asked his colleagues, including me, from the LinkedIn Group CSRA Innovation Group to contribute their thoughts to this “crystal ball” gazing initiative.   

2010 Web 2.0 Predictions

What were some of the predictions from the group on the impact of web 2.0 on the future of Marketing?   

Marketing — More Real Time and More ROI

  • Marketing Will Become More “Real Time” —  My prediction  focused on a seismic shift in Marketing, with  marketers beginning to view  social networks as a significant marketing contact point with broad implications for how marketing is managed and measured. Dri­ven by dig­i­tal and Web 2.0, Mar­ket­ing will increasingly move from an annual marketing planning exercise focused on one-way communication, to a real-time, dynamically planned function focused on interacting with and responding to consumers in real-time. Mar­ket­ing effec­tive­ness will increas­ingly be mea­sured in real-time, and adjust­ments will be made “on the fly,” based on brand equity and ROI met­rics.
  • “Earned Media” Will Become More Measurable — And More Relatable to Paid Media —  The “greater focus for most com­pa­nies will be on demand creation through use of social media & Web 2.0 tech­nolo­gies,” according to Rob Peters.  Marketers will increasingly focus on the creation of “Earned Media,” and will build their measurement capabilities to better understand factors of success. As well, Marketers will increasingly think of media in a more holistic “Blended Media” framework, e.g. the mix of traditional paid TV, Web, etc. and earned media such as Twitter, blogs, organic search and such. This is important since TV viewership continues to increase, and TV advertising seems to work about as well as ever. Understanding the relationship and interaction of paid and earned media will continue to evolve and become more sophisticated in 2010.

Social Networks Will Become Increasingly…

  • More Able to Drive Relationship Marketing — Christopher Rollyson affirmed the increasingly important role of global social networks in “discovering, building and maintaining relationships.” Network theory shows that the more people who are in a network, the more powerful it becomes for all members. As social networks continue to grow and combine in new forms, this network effect will only increase the potential impact of social networks. And continued social media technical innovation will accelerate brands ability to build new and more interactive relationships with their customers.
  • More Cost Effective — On the topic of the growth of social networks, Suzy Tonini points out that Web 2.0’s “reach and cost-effectiveness have been a huge plus” in the midst of the recession. While not free, social media will continue to offer the potential to drive improved results at lower cost. The key will be for brands to understand what aspects of earned and paid media drive word-of-mouth, viral marketing and create a long tail of positive brand impressions on the web that continue to build the brand long after the initial effort is finished.
  • More Mobile with Greater Ability to Share Trust Based Information — Recommendations from people you know is consistently rated by consumers as a top marketing contact point. The continued adoption of Facebook Connect will drive this to a new level as consumers can increasingly log in to their favorite sites with their Facebook ID, and then access their social networks opinions and recommendations as they traverse the web. 
  • More Location Aware — Alvin Chin poses that “location-aware” geo-social networks will allow the recording of “social interactions in real life.” This will allow Marketers to increasingly “map” consumer engagement by geographic location, serve up relevant content, and interact in novel and interesting ways.

Geo-Social Networks Take Twitter and Facebook to the Next Level

Will the Predictions Become Realities in 2010?

Not every prediction comes true. Social media pundits predicted the death of TV and there’s just no evidence yet that it’s dying. That said, there’s no question that web 2.0 and social media will only expand in 2010.

Any marketer who questions the likelihood that these predictions about information sharing, the expansion of social networks, and brand building should consider the advent of Google Buzz. With the ability to share status updates to selected groups, interact with others via location-based software, and find answers via mobile search engines, Google Buzz takes the offerings of social media players like Facebook, Twitter, and Foursquare to the next level. And that’s one digital phenomena that started out as a prediction.   

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The 5 Truths of TV Advertising Effectiveness

January 18, 2010

Question:  Is TV advertising less effective today than 15 years ago?

If you think you know the answer, read on. Digital and social media are having a transformational effect on Marketing content, organizations and processes. This being said, what’s often ignored is what we know about TV advertising effectiveness in the here and now. 

The 5 TV Advertising Truths

I recently wrote about “The 5 Myths of TV Viewership,” and this post forms a book-end with that earlier one. Like TV viewership, there are many myths about how and whether TV advertising actually works in the current environment. Here are the 5 most prevalent ones–some of which you might find surprising:
MYTH:   TV Advertising Takes a Long Time to Work
TRUTH #1:   Advertising Works Fast, When it Works

Part of the mythology of TV advertising is the “3+” frequency myth. That is, it takes a minimum of 3 repetitions of an ad for it to move a consumer down the purchase funnel. For CPG, this is simply not true. 

The advertising response curve is "convex"—the greatest marginal response is from the first exposures.

Numerous single source tests have demonstrated that when TV ads work, they work quickly to build sales (Rubinson, Journal of Advertising Research).  In fact, the TV ad effectiveness curve is generally convex—e.g. early airings have the most impact, and additional airings decrease in effectiveness (Taylor, Kennedy & Sharp: Journal of Advertising Research). When ads work, they tend to work quickly. 

MYTH:  When TV Ads Work, They Have Large Impact
TRUTH #2:  Ads Generate Small Impact Over Time

The question “What sales impact is my ad having?” has been studied rigorously since the advent of single source data (e.g. BehaviorScan or other panels which track the single variable impact of advertising on purchase behavior). On average, for the CPG categories studied, every $1 invested returns about $.10 (Taylor, Kennedy & Sharp Journal of Advertising Research). The sales return on an invested TV ad dollar has varied between .06 and .14 over the past 20 years (Hu, Lodish, Krieger & Hayati Journal of Advertising Research). And the sales lift is larger in year 2 than year 1. 

MYTH:  DVR’s are Killing Ads
TRUTH #3:  Ad Impact is Similar With or Without DVR’s

Yes, it’s hard to believe, but the evidence suggests that DVR homes have about the same recall of TV ads as non-DVR homes (du Plessis, Journal of Advertising Research). 

 

There’s likely a range of reasons for this phenomenon, including people with DVR’s watching higher engagement shows, DVR’s increasing total TV viewing time, etc. Interestingly, research shows that consumers have the same recall and understanding of your ad when fast forwarded as when viewed in a normal manner, if they have already seen it normally once (du Plessis, Journal of Advertising Research).   

MYTH:  Digital Ads are More Likable Than TV Ads
TRUTH #4:  TV Advertising is More Likable

People assume that because the web is a “lean-forward” medium, ads in this environment are naturally more engaging  and well liked. Research shows that this is not the case. On average, TV ads are liked better than digital ads (Moult & Smith, Journal of Advertising Research). Here I should also say that likability doesn’t necessarily translate to effectiveness. 

MYTH:  TV Ads are Declining in Effectiveness
TRUTH #5:  TV Ads are as Effective Today as 15 Years Ago

This is perhaps the biggest myth of all—that TV ads are losing effectiveness over time. Falling TV ratings and the rise of social media and mobile are hurting TV ad effectiveness, right? Wrong. The research on this topic, across time and geographies, strongly suggests this is not true. As noted earlier, advertising demand elasticities have fluctuated over the past 15 years, but are not declining (Rubinson, Journal of Advertising Research). So, TV advertising is as effective (or ineffective) as ever. 

Future of TV Advertising

So, if TV advertising is still effective, what’s the future of TV advertising? I’d suggest it will be in three areas: 

1. Cross Media – The rise of digital and social media has created numerous new means and forms to advertise and engage consumers. Research clearly shows that the impact of a TV ad is even higher when a consumer has been exposed to your brands ad on the web, and vice versa. Thus, CMO’s should focus on building cross media campaigns that continue to leverage TV as appropriate, but in new combinations with new social media and digital initiatives (for more on social media marketing, see “How the Future Social Web will Transform Marketing”). 

Social media has entered the traditional marketing ecosystem.

2. New TV Ad Forms – As TV evolves from network to networked TV, new advertising form factors are cropping up. iTV is already in place and many brands are experimenting with this new approach. Additionally, Shelly Palmer and others have proposed new ad forms such as speed bumps, telescoping ads, etc. which are being enabled by “networked” TV. Marketers need to keep an eye on these new ad forms and be ready to experiment, learn and adjust. 

3. Earned Media – There is vast opportunity for brands to understand how to use paid media to drive earned media. However, this is a nascent and poorly understood area that deserves much greater experimentation. Nonetheless, understanding how paid media drives earned, earned drives paid, and how they influence one another is fertile ground for future advertising model innovation. 

So, back to our original question: “Is TV advertising less effective than 15 years ago?” The answer is a clear “no,” just as you should answer the question “Shouldn’t we completely forget about TV advertising and just concentrate solely on new media?” 

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